Air Cargo at Mid-2026: Demand Defies Forecasts as Rates Soar and De Minimis Rules Reshape E-Commerce

Cover image: freight pallets being loaded onto a cargo aircraft — photo by Kerry Raymond, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

The air cargo market has reached the middle of 2026 in far better shape than its volume forecasts suggest. IATA, the airline trade body, reported that global demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) rose 6.0% year on year in May 2026 (6.5% for international traffic), while capacity grew just 1.9%, pushing the cargo load factor up 1.8 percentage points to 46.3%. Analyst WorldACD says worldwide chargeable weight climbed 9% year on year in June and 5% across the first half, with average rates in June roughly 33% above June 2025 and spot rates averaging US$3.71 per kilogram, up 43%. Yet IATA's June outlook cut its full-year volume forecast to just 0.2% growth (71.7 million tonnes) after Middle East conflict disruption, even as it raised cargo revenue expectations to $162 billion, up 7.2%, on the first yield growth in three years. The story of mid-2026, in short: volumes are resilient, capacity is tight, and pricing is doing the heavy lifting.

How strong is air cargo demand in 2026 so far?

Stronger than most of the industry expected in January. IATA's May data showed above-trend growth in four of six regions: African carriers led with 13.3% CTK growth, followed by North America at 10.5%, Asia-Pacific at 8.0% and Europe at 6.7%. The glaring exception was the Middle East, where demand contracted 8.9% as war-related airspace and network disruption continued to bite, a squeeze on the region's carriers that we examined in our report on how Gulf airlines are rebuilding their networks after airspace disruption.

Trade lanes tell the same story. IATA recorded 19.9% growth on Asia–North America, 14.1% on Africa–Asia and 10.0% on Europe–Asia in May, against a backdrop of global goods trade expanding 5.0% year on year, its 25th consecutive month of growth. WorldACD's June figures confirm the momentum held: Middle East and South Asia tonnage was up 11%, Asia-Pacific 10% and North America 9%.

Why are air freight rates so high in 2026?

Two forces are compounding: tight capacity and a fuel shock. IATA's June Global Outlook, pointedly subtitled "Energy in Crisis", projects the industry fuel bill jumping from $252 billion in 2025 to around $350 billion in 2026, a rise of nearly 40%, and airlines are recouping those costs through pricing. Cargo yields are forecast to rise 6.5% this year after three consecutive annual declines. The same energy squeeze is hitting the passenger side, as we detailed in our analysis of why jet fuel costs are pushing 2026 airfares higher.

WorldACD's regional spot-rate data for June shows how broad the repricing is:

• Middle East and Africa origins: spot rates up 49% year on year
• Asia-Pacific: up 47%
• North America: up 42%
• Europe: up 34%
• Central and South America: up 14%

What have the de minimis changes done to e-commerce air cargo?

The duty-free thresholds that powered the cross-border e-commerce boom have now effectively vanished on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States, de minimis treatment ended for Chinese goods in 2025 and was extended to all origins from late August 2025; on 24 June 2026, US Customs formalised an indefinite suspension of the exemption for all transport modes other than post, published in the Federal Register. The initial result was a slump in China–US e-commerce volumes and a visible shift of traffic towards China–Europe lanes, though WorldACD notes US-bound volumes have since largely recovered.

Europe followed on 1 July 2026, abolishing its €150 duty exemption and applying a temporary €3 customs duty per item on low-value consignments, agreed by the EU Council in February and set to run until July 2028. A separate handling fee of roughly €2 is expected to follow by November 2026. The scale is enormous: the European Commission says 4.6 billion small packages entered the EU in 2024, 91% of them from China. Early evidence suggests a muted shock so far; WorldACD recorded only a modest week-on-week dip in Asia–Europe tonnage in the first days of the new regime.

Belly capacity vs freighters: where is the space coming from?

Capacity is the market's real constraint. IATA's May figures show supply (available cargo tonne-kilometres) growing at less than a third of the pace of demand. Passenger-aircraft bellies now provide roughly 56% of worldwide cargo capacity against about 44% on dedicated freighters, per Statista data, and belly space keeps expanding as airlines take delivery of A350s and 787s for record summer passenger schedules. But widebody delivery delays and engine shop bottlenecks cap how fast that lower-deck supply can grow, a structural problem we covered in depth in our report on aviation's supply-chain squeeze and the 18,000-jet backlog.

That is why carriers with maindeck ambitions are doubling down on freighters. Emirates SkyCargo's continued Boeing 777F build-up, which we reported in our piece on the Dubai carrier's freighter fleet expansion, is a bet that dense e-commerce and pharma flows will keep outgrowing what passenger bellies can absorb on key lanes.

What does IATA forecast for the rest of 2026?

A year of flat boxes and fatter invoices. The headline numbers from the mid-year data round:

For airlines, that revenue mix matters: cargo is one of the props under the industry's wafer-thin 2026 margins. The wildcards for the second half are Middle East stability, how sharply the EU parcel duty dents Asia–Europe e-commerce once the handling fee lands, and whether fuel prices force another round of repricing.

Frequently asked questions

Will higher air cargo rates make my online orders more expensive?

Indirectly, yes. Air freight rates up 33% year on year and new per-item EU duties (€3 from 1 July 2026) raise the landed cost of low-value parcels, and large e-commerce platforms typically pass at least part of that on through prices or delivery fees.

Does strong air cargo affect passenger flights?

It can help keep fares in check. Bellies of passenger widebodies carry about 56% of the world's cargo capacity, and healthy cargo revenue subsidises route economics, making some long-haul services viable that ticket sales alone would not support.

Why did IATA cut its 2026 cargo growth forecast if demand is rising?

The June revision to 0.2% tonnage growth reflects first-half disruption from the Middle East conflict and trade-policy uncertainty. Revenue was revised upwards at the same time because yields are rising 6.5% as airlines recover a fuel bill that is climbing towards $350 billion.

Sources

• IATA — Air Cargo Demand Up 6.0% in May
• Cargo Newswire / WorldACD — Global air cargo market resilient as June tonnage rises 9%
• Council of the EU — Final green light for new customs duty rules on small parcels
• US Federal Register — Indefinite suspension of the de minimis exemption