Boeing now expects a stable 737 rate of 47 a month only in early 2027 and fewer than 500 737s this year. Airbus needs 323 deliveries in Q4 to reach about 870.
Cover image: Boeing's 737 factory in Renton, Washington, seen from the south (2019 file photo) — photo by SounderBruce, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Boeing will not reach a stable 737 rate of 47 jets a month until early 2027, chief executive Kelly Ortberg said on 27 October, and Boeing will miss its 500-jet delivery target for the 737 this year, finance chief Jay Malave told analysts. As recently as May, executives had said Boeing would hit 47 this summer, Reuters reported.
Airbus kept its target of around 870 deliveries in 2026 at its nine-month results on 28 October. To get there it must hand over 323 aircraft between October and December. Neither planemaker is short of orders. The limits they described were wings at Boeing and engines at Airbus.
When will Boeing reach 737 rate 47, and what is the 2027 plan?
Boeing's release says the 737 programme "continues to progress toward stabilized production of 47 per month". Ortberg was blunter on the call. "We're not stable at 47 yet," he told analysts, according to Air Data News, which said changes to wing production had not delivered all the efficiency gains Boeing expected.
Engines, he said, are not currently limiting the 737.
The next step, 52 a month, is still planned for the second half of 2027. Before that, the new Everett line, which opened in July, must produce about five jets a month and the former Spirit AeroSystems fuselage plant in Wichita must speed up, Reuters reported. The first aircraft assembled on that North Line, a 737-10 for WestJet, rolled out on 26 October, Air Data News reported.
How many 737s will Boeing deliver in 2026?
Fewer than 500, Air Data News reported from the call.
Boeing delivered 367 737s in the first nine months, 124 of them in the third quarter. Reaching 500 would take 133 in the fourth quarter, by our arithmetic.
The newly certified variants won't help this year. Already-built 737-7s and 737-10s begin reaching customers in early 2027, with about 30 due that year, according to Air Data News (see our report on the 737-10's FAA certification).
Quarterly revenue rose 4 per cent to $24.2 billion, Boeing said, but Commercial Airplanes lost $697 million, more than double its second-quarter loss of $322 million (Air Data News). Boeing guided to about $3 billion of free cash flow in 2027, below a $5.5 billion consensus, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu wrote. The shares fell nearly 10 per cent on 27 October, Reuters reported.
Can Airbus make 870 deliveries in 2026?
Airbus delivered 547 aircraft through September, 40 more than a year earlier. Chief executive Guillaume Faury said Airbus was "reasonably comfortable" with around 870, and the guidance allows about 20 either way, Air Data News reported. Chief financial officer Thomas Toepfer said 323 in the fourth quarter would be 37 more than a year ago.
That means nearly 108 deliveries a month, against about 61 from January to September, Aerospace Global News calculated. Airbus delivered 286 in the last quarter of 2025, 136 of them in December.
Engines remain the main limit on A320 Family output, particularly those from Pratt & Whitney, Faury said. Airbus had €51 billion tied up in aircraft being built and parts at the end of September, Air Data News reported. It still plans 70 to 75 A320 Family jets a month by end-2027.
What does the slower ramp mean for airline fleet plans?
Airbus took 1,105 net orders in nine months, more than double the 514 a year earlier. Its 9,310-aircraft backlog is more than ten years of output at 870 a year, by our arithmetic. Boeing booked 300 net orders in the quarter, including from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines and Lufthansa. Our 2026 aircraft deliveries and certification tracker follows both planemakers.
| Measure | Boeing | Airbus |
|---|---|---|
| Deliveries, Jan to Sep 2026 | 475 (367 737s) | 547 (428 A320 Family) |
| Deliveries, Jan to Sep 2025 | 440 | 507 |
| 2026 delivery outlook | Fewer than 500 737s | Around 870, all types |
| Narrowbody rate plan | 47 a month stable early 2027; 52 in H2 2027 | A320 Family 70 to 75 a month by end-2027 |
| Main constraint cited | Wing production | Engines, particularly Pratt & Whitney |
| Commercial backlog | Over 6,300 aircraft ($612bn) | 9,310 aircraft |
For an airline holding a 737 slot in 2027, the move to 52 depends partly on a line that has just rolled out its first aircraft. At Airbus, the wait is for engines.
Frequently asked questions
When will Boeing reach a stable 737 rate of 47 a month?
Not until early 2027, chief executive Kelly Ortberg said on 27 October. Executives had said as recently as May that Boeing would get there this summer, Reuters reported. Wing production is the bottleneck, and Boeing is changing the process and adding capacity.
What is Boeing's 737 production target for 2027?
Boeing targets 52 a month in the second half of 2027. First, the new North Line in Everett must produce about five jets a month and fuselage output in Wichita must rise. For planning, Boeing assumes 737 deliveries in the mid-to-high 50s a month by 2029, Air Data News reported.
How many aircraft will Airbus deliver in 2026?
Airbus targets around 870 commercial aircraft, allowing about 20 either way. It delivered 547 by the end of September, so it needs 323 in the fourth quarter, 37 more than a year earlier. Chief executive Guillaume Faury said Airbus was "reasonably comfortable" with the target.
When will airlines receive the first 737-7 and 737-10?
Both types now have FAA certification. Aircraft already built will begin reaching customers in early 2027, according to Air Data News, and Boeing expects to deliver about 30 previously produced MAX 7s and MAX 10s during that year once they reach their final certified configuration.
Sources
- Boeing, Boeing Reports Third Quarter Results
- Reuters via AJOT, Boeing shares sell off on slower 737 output
- Air Data News, Boeing pushes 737 production recovery into 2027
- Air Data News, Boeing commercial aircraft losses more than double
- Airbus, Nine-Month (9m) 2026 results
- Air Data News, Airbus reasonably comfortable with 870 target
- Aerospace Global News, Airbus needs 323 deliveries in Q4
