Thanksgiving fares are running 13% above 2025 and year-end fares 18% higher, so the window for cheap seats is closing sooner than usual. Here are the book-by dates experts agree on, the cheapest days to fly, and why waiting for a Black Friday deal is a bad bet in 2026.
Cover image: travellers queueing at airport check-in desks with luggage — photo by Dragfyre, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
If you are wondering when to book holiday flights in 2026, the short answer is: now for Thanksgiving, and by Halloween for Christmas. The Points Guy advises buying Thanksgiving tickets no later than Labor Day weekend (5-7 September), because last year's sharpest fare jump hit in mid-September. Google Flights data cited in coverage of the 2026 season puts the cheapest Thanksgiving booking window at 24 to 59 days before departure, bottoming out around 35 days — roughly late September to 1 November. For Christmas and New Year travel, the sweet spot runs 32 to 73 days out, cheapest near 51 days, with experts agreeing bookings should be done by Halloween.
The urgency is real. According to fare data from Points Path published by The Points Guy, domestic round-trips for Thanksgiving are running nearly 13% above 2025, while fares for the year-end peak of 18 December to 3 January are up about 18% domestically and 19% internationally. Overall US airfare rose 25.5% between July 2025 and July 2026, per Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index figures released on 12 August.
When should I book Thanksgiving flights for 2026?
Thanksgiving falls on 26 November 2026, and the data points converge on an early deadline. The Points Guy's analysis of last season's pricing found fares climbed sharply from mid-September, prompting its blunt advice: book as soon as you can, and no later than the first weekend of September. Google Flights' historical averages are slightly more forgiving, showing the lowest fares between 24 and 59 days before departure — but even that window closes in October.
Split the difference and the practical rule is this: if you see an acceptable fare between now and late September, take it. With Thanksgiving round-trips already 13% dearer than last year, the downside of booking a little early is far smaller than the downside of paying peak walk-up pricing in November.
Airline executives have signalled that demand is holding up, which removes any incentive to discount. United Airlines chief financial officer Michael Leskinen and JetBlue president Marty St. George both pointed to resilient bookings in remarks reported by The Points Guy in August — a sign carriers expect to fill holiday cabins without slashing fares. Understanding how airlines' AI-driven dynamic pricing systems work helps explain why: revenue-management software raises fares automatically as seats sell, so a strong booking curve means prices ratchet up rather than down.
How much more expensive are Christmas flights this year?
The year-end period is the priciest stretch of the calendar, and 2026 widens the gap. Points Path's data shows domestic fares for 18 December to 3 January up about 18% on last year, with international itineraries up around 19%. That comes on top of a season that was already expensive: The Points Guy notes that in 2025, Christmas and New Year fares "started high and stayed high", and waiting delivered little or no saving.
For 2026, the Google Flights-based guidance is to book Christmas travel 32 to 73 days before departure — mid-October into late November on the calendar — with the cheapest average around 51 days out. Most experts translate that into a simple deadline: have year-end flights booked by Halloween. For international trips, NerdWallet's reading of Google Flights data adds that fares tend to be lowest 49 or more days before departure, which pushes the effective deadline for long-haul Christmas travel to the start of November at the latest.
What are the cheapest days to fly over Thanksgiving and Christmas?
Flexibility on the travel date is worth more than any coupon this year. Going, the flight-deals service, estimates that departing on the holiday itself — Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Eve or New Year's Day — saves 15% to 30% per ticket compared with peak days around it. The most expensive days are predictable: the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the Sunday after.
Day-of-week patterns help too. Expedia's 2026 Air Hacks report found Friday is the cheapest day to start a domestic trip and Sunday the most expensive, with Tuesday departures averaging about 14% less than Sunday ones. The same logic applied over Labor Day weekend 2026, where off-peak departure days undercut the Friday getaway rush.
| Holiday | Book by | Fares vs 2025 | Cheapest days to fly |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving (26 Nov) | Labor Day weekend; late September at the latest | Up ~13% (domestic) | Thanksgiving Day itself; avoid the Sunday after |
| Christmas / New Year (18 Dec-3 Jan) | 32-73 days out; no later than Halloween | Up ~18% domestic, ~19% international | Christmas Eve and New Year's Day (15-30% cheaper) |
Should I wait for a Black Friday flight deal?
Not for peak holiday dates. "The worst thing people can do this year is wait in hopes prices will come down when they are already elevated," Going spokesperson Katy Nastro said in August. Black Friday and Cyber Monday airline sales do exist, but they overwhelmingly apply to off-peak travel in January to March, not the sold-down Thanksgiving and Christmas weeks — and by late November the cheapest holiday inventory is long gone.
There is one caveat: outside the peak weeks, autumn remains a buyer's market, and fares for non-holiday dates often soften after summer. Our guide to when flight prices drop in autumn 2026 maps those shoulder-season booking windows in detail. Use sales for a January escape; use the calendar deadlines above for the holidays themselves.
Two final tactics for a dear year: set fare alerts on two or three date combinations now, so you can pounce inside the window rather than guess; and check nearby alternative airports, where an extra hour's drive can offset a triple-digit fare gap on peak dates.
Frequently asked questions
When is the last day to book Thanksgiving flights for 2026?
There is no hard cut-off, but The Points Guy advises booking no later than Labor Day weekend, 5-7 September, because last year fares jumped sharply from mid-September. Google Flights data is slightly more lenient, showing the cheapest fares 24 to 59 days before departure, which means late September to 1 November. After Halloween, expect steep peak pricing on the busiest days.
How much more expensive are holiday flights in 2026?
Domestic Thanksgiving round-trips are running nearly 13% above 2025 levels, and fares for the year-end peak of 18 December to 3 January are up about 18% domestically and 19% internationally, according to Points Path data published by The Points Guy. US airfare overall rose 25.5% in the year to July 2026, per Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation figures.
What is the cheapest day to fly at Christmas in 2026?
Flying on the holiday itself is the biggest lever. Going estimates that departing on Christmas Eve or New Year's Day saves 15% to 30% per ticket compared with peak days around them, and the same applies to flying on Thanksgiving Day. Generally, Expedia's 2026 data shows Friday is the cheapest day to start a domestic trip and Sunday the most expensive.
Should I wait for Black Friday flight deals in 2026?
No, not for travel during the holiday weeks. Airline Black Friday sales mostly cover off-peak dates in January through March, and by late November the cheapest Thanksgiving and Christmas seats have already sold. With fares elevated across the board this year, Going's Katy Nastro warns that waiting for a drop is the worst strategy travellers can adopt.
When should I book international flights for Christmas 2026?
Book earlier than for domestic trips. Google Flights data cited by NerdWallet shows international fares tend to be lowest 49 or more days before departure, which for Christmas travel means booking by very early November. With international year-end fares up about 19% on last year, locking in a long-haul itinerary by mid-October is the safer play.
Sources
- The Points Guy — How early should you book holiday flights in 2026?
- Yahoo Creators — Airfare is up 25% in a year, and the cheapest window to book holiday flights is closing
- Stacker via ABC 17 News — Why it might be time to book holiday flights already
- NerdWallet — The best time to book holiday travel is very soon
- Good Morning America — When is the Goldilocks window? The best time to book Thanksgiving and Christmas flights
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