Japan's September arrivals fell 5.0% to 3.1 million as mainland Chinese visitors dropped 44.5%, while South Korea and Taiwan set records and Q3 spending rose 3.2%.
Cover image: The Kaminarimon gate and its giant red lantern at Senso-ji, Tokyo (file photo) — photo by Zairon, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Japan received an estimated 3,103,700 foreign visitors in September 2026, 5.0% fewer than in September 2025, the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) said on 21 October. One market more than accounts for the fall: arrivals from mainland China dropped 44.5% to 430,800, a loss of 344,857 visitors, more than twice the overall decline of 163,528. South Korea (842,300, up 25.6%) and Taiwan (595,600, up 13.0%) both set September records.
Excluding mainland China, September arrivals rose about 7.3%, by Travel Market News's calculation from JNTO's tables. Spending is holding up too: the Japan Tourism Agency (JTA) estimated that visitors spent ¥2.2076 trillion in July–September, up 3.2%, although arrivals in the quarter fell 4.8%. All 2026 figures are preliminary.
Which markets grew and which fell in September?
Seven markets set September records, according to JNTO: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Mexico, Russia and the Middle East (Israel, Turkey and the six Gulf Cooperation Council states). By our count, they were the only seven of the 23 markets JNTO reports separately to grow. South Korea alone supplied 27.1% of all visitors, by our calculation. JNTO credits the Chuseok holidays and extra airline seats for its rise.
Most of Southeast Asia fell, with Malaysia down 19.5%, the Philippines 17.1% and Thailand 12.6%. For Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, JNTO also cites the continuing popularity of trips to China. The US fell 3.2% and Germany 12.7%.
The year to date looks different: only mainland China of the 23 is below 2025 for January–September, by our count. Excluding China, nine-month arrivals are up about 13.4%, by our calculation.
JNTO estimates, with change on 2025:
| Market | Sep 2026 | Change | Jan–Sep 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All markets | 3,103,700 | -5.0% | 30,730,200 | -2.9% |
| South Korea | 842,300 | +25.6% | 8,262,700 | +21.6% |
| Taiwan | 595,600 | +13.0% | 5,997,600 | +19.1% |
| Mainland China | 430,800 | -44.5% | 3,335,500 | -55.5% |
| United States | 217,500 | -3.2% | 2,522,800 | +5.2% |
| Thailand | 44,800 | -12.6% | 835,400 | +2.4% |
| Malaysia | 35,300 | -19.5% | 456,400 | +12.1% |
| Middle East | 37,700 | +27.0% | 217,000 | +18.0% |
Why are fewer Chinese visitors travelling to Japan?
JNTO's China commentary notes that the Chinese government has advised its citizens several times since November 2025 to avoid travel to Japan. Reduced flights kept arrivals down despite the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, it adds.
Jiji Press said the drop in Chinese arrivals reflected the Chinese government's advisory against travelling to Japan. South Korea's Herald Business called it the 10th straight monthly decline in Chinese arrivals and said analysts link it to cooler relations after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signalled in November 2025 that Japan could intervene in a Taiwan contingency.
For the market as a whole, JNTO said the Asian Games in Aichi Prefecture brought athletes and officials, but higher airfares linked to the situation in the Middle East, flight reductions and typhoon cancellations pushed many markets below 2025.
Why is visitor spending still rising?
The JTA's first preliminary estimate puts July–September spending at ¥2.2076 trillion, against ¥2.1384 trillion a year earlier. Spending per visitor, excluding cruise passengers, rose 6.1% to ¥233,677.
Taiwan replaced mainland China as the largest-spending market, at ¥381.8 billion (17.3% of the total). Chinese spending fell 39.8% to ¥358.3 billion; a year earlier China held 27.8% of the total. South Korean spending rose 45.8% to ¥293.8 billion and US spending 9.1% to ¥240.9 billion.
Chinese visitors who do come spend more: ¥294,560 per head, up 22.1%. French visitors spent the most per head, at ¥423,021.
Shopping took 27.7% of the quarter's spending, a larger share than in 2025. From 1 November, tax-free purchases move to a refund method, with consumption tax refunded after a customs check at the airport or seaport, according to the JTA. Our guide to Japan's tax-free refund system explains the change.
The Herald Business put January–September spending at a record ¥7.06 trillion, up 1.9%, helped by the weak yen.
Can Japan still beat its 2025 record?
Japan received a record 42,683,301 visitors in 2025. Matching it requires 11,953,101 arrivals in October–December 2026, about 8.3% more than in the same months of 2025, by our calculation from JNTO data. October 2025, at 3,896,524, was that year's second-busiest month after April.
Local media say the full-year total could fall short of the record if the decline in Chinese visitors continues, The Herald Business reported. In the first quarter, arrivals were still 1.4% ahead of 2025, by our calculation from JNTO's monthly figures, as our July report on Japan's inbound boom described.
Frequently asked questions
How many foreign visitors did Japan receive in September 2026?
JNTO estimates 3,103,700 foreign visitors in September 2026, down 5.0% from 3,267,228 a year earlier. It was the second monthly fall in a row, after a 9.6% drop in August. The January–September total was 30,730,200, down 2.9%. All 2026 figures are preliminary estimates.
Why are Chinese visitor numbers to Japan falling?
JNTO notes that the Chinese government has advised citizens several times since November 2025 to avoid travel to Japan, and cites fewer flights. Jiji Press links the fall to that advisory; The Herald Business says analysts connect it to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's November 2025 remarks on Taiwan.
Is tourist spending in Japan still growing?
Yes. The Japan Tourism Agency estimates that visitors spent ¥2.2076 trillion in July–September 2026, up 3.2%, while arrivals in the quarter fell 4.8%. Spending per visitor rose 6.1% to ¥233,677, and Taiwan overtook mainland China as the largest-spending market for the quarter.
Will Japan beat its 2025 visitor record in 2026?
Japan needs 11,953,101 visitors in October–December to match the 2025 record of 42,683,301, about 8.3% more than in the same months of 2025, by our calculation from JNTO data. Local media cited by The Herald Business say the record could be missed if the Chinese decline continues.
Sources
- JNTO, Visitor arrivals for September 2026 (PDF)
- Japan Tourism Agency, Inbound consumption survey, July–September 2026 (PDF, Japanese)
- Jiji Press (Nippon.com), Foreign visitors to Japan down 5.0 pct in Sept.
- The Herald Business, Koreans top foreign visitor rankings in Japan
- Japan Tourism Agency, What is the refund method?
